Preparing for the Championship Run

Looking at salary numbers, it appears that the Braves have tied up a little over $80 million as of November 12. This number covers 24 players, including Tim Hudson, who signed a 3 year/$27 million deal at $9 million per year (with a 2013 option). Among these are arbitration-eligible Kelly Johnson ($2.83 million last year) and Ryan Church ($2.8 million last year). The Braves could choose not to tender them contracts, freeing up approximately $5.6 million. Considering that the Braves' 2009 payroll was in the neighborhood of $97 million, that leaves Frank Wren with approximately $22.5 million to find a closer, a first baseman, and a power-hitting outfielder. Piece of cake, right?

This preacher is used to budgeting. Between praying that the church brings in enough to keep vibrant ministry going, to praying that the recession will not hit in the field of public education, crunching numbers is not a foreign field. With the numbers mentioned above, there is a very real chance that Atlanta cannot fill all of its needs using only the $22.5 million. If that is the case, then the Braves have two options. They can trade from their depth of starting pitching, or they can raid the farm system in a trade. The most likely scenarios appearing in print involve trading one of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, or Kenshin Kawakami. There are problems associated with trading each player.

Trading Lowe will be extremely difficult, considering his age (mid 30s), his contract ($15 per year for three more years), and the fact that he stumbled a bit in 2009. The Braves could probably trade him, but not without paying a portion of his contract. Such a decision would hamstring them in free agent pursuits. Another option with Lowe is to make him the closer. Lowe has experience in the position, closing for Boston over parts of four seasons (1998-2001), but it would be unlikely that Frank Wren and the Braves would want to invest $15 million per year in the closer position, when they will not pay $15 million combined to keep Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez.

Kawakami would seem, on paper, to be the most tradable piece. He is signed to a reasonable $6.67 million for two more years. He is a reliable fourth or fifth starter who was dominant in big game match-ups in 2009 (against Joba Chamberlain, Roy Halladay, and Daisuke Matsuzaka). Seattle, Los Angeles, or perhaps even Boston or the New York Yankees would likely take a look and perhaps provide prospects which could be used in a deal for a first baseman or an outfielder. The only problems with trading Kawakami are that, for one, this is the first player from Japan targeted by the Braves. They run the risk of burning bridges with Japanese imports if they trade their first one after only one year. Second, Kawakami is a good value for what he provides. As a fifth starter, spot starter, or reliever, his flexibility saves Atlanta money on the bullpen. This preacher likes bargains and the benefits of multi-purpose usefulness, so my recommendation is to keep Kenshin.

Javier Vazquez, if he should be made available, would be the first choice for several pitching-hungry teams. Such teams would fall all over themselves to pick up Vazquez for one year and $11.5 million. The problem with trading Vazquez comes when one analyzes possible destinations. Firstly, Javier has no trade rights blocking deals to teams in the NL and AL Western Divisions. Wren would be tarred and feathered if he traded Vazquez within the division (except perhaps to Washington), which leaves only the NL Central, AL East, and AL Central divisions as possibilities. Of these options, Vazquez would possibly melt in the high-pressure world of New York or Boston. Toronto would be an option, but they're looking to shed payroll, not increase it. Baltimore or Tampa might work, if they can take on $11.5 million in salary, which seems unlikely. In the Central, there's no chance of a return to the White Sox. Minnesota, Kansas City, and Cleveland are all small-market teams who likely would not want the added payroll. In the NL Central, St. Louis is an option, as is Milwaukee, but the Braves would be hard-pressed to get equal value for Vazquez (unless Prince Fielder were involved). So to summarize, Vazquez is an ace-type pitcher that the Braves cannot move and still get equal value.

So what should the tomahawk wielders do? Here is an idea worth discussing, if not implementing. First, Atlanta should offer arbitration to Mike Gonzalez, while refusing to offer Rafael Soriano. If Gonzalez accepts arbitration, we retain his services for one year at close to $4 million. As a Type A free agent, if he goes to another team, we pick up two draft picks (one first rounder and one sandwich pick). Second, Atlanta should prepare a two-year, $17 million offer for Adam LaRoche ($7 million for the first year, $10 million for the second). This solves first base while keeping the seat warm for Freddie Freeman. Third, Atlanta should seek to move Derek Lowe to the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, or Cubs for an impact 3B prospect. This salary dump saves Atlanta a total of $45 million while grooming a successor to Chipper Jones. Using the $22.5 million Wren had to start, plus the $15 million saved by moving Lowe, Wren should then make a two year, $20 million offer to Jason Bay. Bay, McClouth, Diaz, and Schafer (or uber-prospect Jason Heyward) would make a fine outfield. Also, the Braves should offer to extend Javier Vazquez. Sign him to a two year, $25 million extension with a club option for 2013 that automatically vests with 240 innings between the two years. Make it $11 million in 2011 and $14 million in 2012.

With these moves, the 2010 Braves would look something like this. New additions (including free agent signings and Tim Hudson) are highlighted in bold.

SP: Javier Vazquez ($11.5 million)
SP: Jair Jurrjens ($450,000)
SP: Tim Hudson ($9 million)
SP: Tommy Hanson ($450,000)
SP Kenshin Kawakami ($6.7 million)

Rotation Cost: $28.1 million

RP: Mike Gonzalez ($4 million)
RP: Peter Moylan ($450,000)
RP: Kris Medlen ($450,000)
RP: Eric O'Flaherty ($400,000)
RP: Boone Logan ($430,000)
RP: Manny Acosta ($415,000)
RP: James Parr ($400,000)

Bulpen Cost: $6.6 million

C: Brian McCann ($5.5 million)
C: David Ross ($1.6 million)
1B: Adam LaRoche ($7 million)
2B: Martin Prado: ($415,000)
SS: Yunel Escobar ($425,000)
3B: Chipper Jones ($13 million)
IF/OF: Omar Infante (($2.225 million)
IF: Diory Hernandez ($400,000)

Infield Cost: $30.565 million

OF: Nate McClouth ($4.5 million)
OF: Jason Bay ($10 million)
OF: Matt Diaz ($1.2375 million)
OF: Jordan Schafer ($400,000)
OF: Jason Heyward ($400,000)

Outfield Cost: $16.5375 million

2010 Projected Payroll: $81.4025 million

Even if the Bay, Vazquez, and LaRoche deals seem to be on the low end of reality, there is a positive difference of $16 million between 2010 and last year's payroll. There is enough room here to make better offers to the aforementioned free agents, extending Vazquez, and perhaps even upgrading the bullpen. In short, there is no reason not to expect the braves to return to the postseason, and once there, to dominate. It's not too early to start chopping for 2010!

From Centerfield, this is Matthew, Dad to Walter and Abigail. Get your chop on!