... the latest musings by Matthew Collier, known affectionately around the Shop, and around the world, as Matthew, Dad to Walter and Abigail ... in order for us to better address the desire for increased, up-to-date baseball information and current stories of interest.
Like everyone else, I want the Braves back where they belong, in the playoffs. And while I won't give up until they are mathematically eliminated, it is a long shot for this year. But take a look at this:
2006: 79-83 (3rd)
2007: 84-78 (3rd)
2008: 72-90 (4th)
2009: 76-68 (3rd) with 18 games to play
Let's say the Braves make a strong final push, going 12-6, but not making the playoffs. That finish puts them at 88-74, and 2nd in the East. That is an improvement of 16 games over last year, and while 2B and offense in the outfield still need to be addressed, I think we can consider this season a minor success, and a great improvement over last year. On the other hand, if we give up and go 6-12, everyone will see the final numbers (82-80), the season would be viewed as a failure.
Regardless of whether or not we make the playoffs, we can learn some things about this team in the season's final weeks.
Can Kelly Johnson prove to be a serviceable MLB player?
If so, he can have the 2B job back and Prado can stay in the super-sub role.
We could also make Infante available for the right trade. If not, we non-tender KJ and save approximately. $4 mil that he would earn in arbitration.
"Okay, Lord, which of us get the job?"
If so, he can have the 2B job back and Prado can stay in the super-sub role.
We could also make Infante available for the right trade. If not, we non-tender KJ and save approximately. $4 mil that he would earn in arbitration."Okay, Lord, which of us get the job?"
Will Tim Hudson sign an extension to stay in Atlanta longer, albeit at a lower salary?
If so, then we must address who in the rotation must go. Ideally, Kawakami would be traded either to the Red Sox, Mariners, or Dodgers, where large Asian fanbases are already present and where we'd get a decent prospect in addition to salary relief.
How will the outfield play out? With Anderson likely out the door (which reminds me, do we offer him arbitration as a Type B Free Agent?), Diaz and Church have the opportunity to show the Braves which one deserves to stay (I keep Diaz). For next year, we can hope Schafer has recovered and is ready to man centerfield, or we can go get a stop-gap until Heyward is ready (Bobby Abreu or Xavier Nady-type players). When J-Hey arrives, put him in right (Diaz can spell him as needed), Schafer in center if he is ready, and Mclouth in left. If Schafer isn't ready, platoon Abreu and Diaz in left, Mclouth in center, and Heyward in right. I could live with that.
Which of the closers will we keep, if either?
I don't know how much we can learn in these last few weeks, but if the Braves decide to keep one, I'd choose Gonzalez. His passion and desire more than make up for his occasional mistakes. I'd rather have a closer who is a little too passionate than one who looks like he couldn't care less and is as brittle as an old lady. I would offer Soriano arbitration, though, since he's likely to take a deal elsewhere ... at least then we'd collect the two draft picks (he is a Type A Free Agent). I'd look at making Gonzo the closer, with Moylan sharing some of the duties, putting Medlen in the setup role (where I think he could dominate), and go from there.
Just a few items to discuss - I'd love to hear your responses.I don't know how much we can learn in these last few weeks, but if the Braves decide to keep one, I'd choose Gonzalez. His passion and desire more than make up for his occasional mistakes. I'd rather have a closer who is a little too passionate than one who looks like he couldn't care less and is as brittle as an old lady. I would offer Soriano arbitration, though, since he's likely to take a deal elsewhere ... at least then we'd collect the two draft picks (he is a Type A Free Agent). I'd look at making Gonzo the closer, with Moylan sharing some of the duties, putting Medlen in the setup role (where I think he could dominate), and go from there.
...Matthew
Well, Matt's given you the skinny ... How do you rate the Braves' chances of making the 2010 post season?
Not a Braves' fan? Shame! Shame!
Well, you're still welcome here in the old barbershop! Tell us your team ... and share the skinny on its chances!
I know it will be hard but try to be just as objective and realistic as Matt always is!!
We're still chopping ... the Braves made a great run ... just ran out of time and came up a bit short ... we're gonna win in 2010!
a disease shared by many who frequent the Shop ... so keeping us informed on what's up with Atlanta's tomahawk tribe is sure to be a priority!
6 comments:
Nice Post Matt!
My guess is that you're on spot and will win this Horse Shoes match but I'll be your Huckleberry ...
I think a lot depends on whether Bobby and/or Chipper return ... there's been talk that either or both might.
I've liked Kelly Johnson since he first came up and he did all they asked, and then some, in learning to play second base. However, I'd prefer to have someone less mechanical at second. Kelly has been a puzzle at the plate ... how can someone who has a great eye, knows the strike zone well, and has good stroke ... be such a streaky hitter?
In my book, the name of the offensive game is "besting the pitcher" and the vast majority of players just don't think enough when they're at the plate ... it may just be that Kelly goes in cycles where he thinks too much! Whatever the reason, I think it needs fixing if he is to be an everyday player, second base or the outfield. I want him on the team but believe I would let him go before I'd pay him $4 million, regardless.
I think the roles of both Prado and Infante depend somewhat on Chipper ... but improving an infield of Infante, Escobar, Prado and LaRoche will be difficult ... all four have demonstrated the ability to consistently, and with power, and their defense should only improve as the become accustomed to playing together as a unit ... I wouldn't trade them.
I don't know if Hudson will sign an extension but hope that he will as I believe he'll be great over the next three years.
If someone in the rotation must go, my choice would be Lowe rather than Kawakami ... economics may otherwise dictate and my guess you're on spot with what will most likely happen. Since the middle of June, Derek has been consistently mediocre at best ... a whole bunch of starts of 6.0 innings or less. I think Kawakami has actually had fewer bad outings and has pitched exceptionally well when matched the best pitchers in the game.
Here's a question of ignorance for you ... what advantages are there to having offered Anderson arbitration as a Type B Free Agent ... if he accepts?
It's difficult to think of the Braves in the near future without Matt Diaz ... to me, he's the heart of the team and I've never understood platooning him ... hits well against both right and left handed pitching, when given adequate opportunity. .
I would make my plans based on the assumption that Schafer would not be on the 2010 active roster and go from there ... if he's ready, then all the better. Heyward is, by all reports, an impact player who can adjust and I'd like to see him given the chance out of Spring Training ... Diaz, Heyward and McLouth would suit me just fine For next year.
I agree with you on the relief pitchers pretty much ... like Gonzalez' passion too but he scares me ... I'd stick with Soriano as closer though I agree with you about him too.
Could be a dominating team next year, with or without Bobby and/or Chipper!
The benefit to offering arbitration to a Type B free agent is that if he refuses, the team losing him is awarded a compensatory draft pick in between the first and second rounds of the next year's draft (known as a "sandwich" pick).
Here's a site I found with a helpful explanation of how draft pick compensation works.
http://wiki.soxprospects.com/MLB+Compensatory+Draft+Pick+System
Oh, and if Anderson accepts, then he would suffer no greater than a 15% salary reduction from his 2009 salary. Garret made $3.5 mil this year.
The risk is that he accepts and you're stuck paying him that much for mediocre production. That $3.5 mil could go toward keeping our pitching or picking up a Bobby Abreu-type player. The reward is an extra draft pick after the 1st round. If we knew Anderson had no desire to return, then offering arby makes total sense. If Anderson wants to continue playing and can't get a decent deal, then we're stuck.
Are you saying he can have his cake and eat it too?
I mean, "if he wants to continue playing and can't get a decent deal" ... how would we be stuck ... wouldn't he have to reject arbitration before he could find out about the deals he can get?
Oops-sorry about that. If he accepted arbitration, we'd have him on a one-year deal and he couldn't shop around. However, the Braves have until Dec. 1 to decide whether or not to offer. If by that time GA realizes he's done, we offer it, he rejects it, and we get the pick. Between the end of the season and Dec 1st, I would guess he could put feelers out with LAA to see if they'd want him back. That would really be the only place he's go in my view. But if the Braves do offer (by the Dec 1 deadline) and he accepts, we're stuck. It really boils down to whether GA wants to keep playing. If he's done, then not offering would be silly.
As it's very late, this may have only served to muddy the water even more. My proximity to the Mississippi sometimes mars my thinking. If it still doesn't sound right, I'll try again tomorrow.
And by the way, I like the new format except for the fact that I can't access the features at all at work. Everything with blogspot in the URL or containing wild card xanga is blocked by our firewall.
I have a partial solution ... We can eliminate the "blogspot" part of the URL for the Centerfield Feature ... or any of them for that matter ... the cost is only $10 per year!
It's your job to solve the other of the problem ... getting the browser updated! What could be the possible reason for not doing that?
I thought all Southern Baptist preachers had to be board certified as good salesmen!
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