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Thursday, September 24, 2009

Don't Stop Chopping Yet!

I am disappointed that the Braves haven't already locked up a playoff spot, but with our situation being what it was for the first half of the year (no power from 1B, a weak hitting OF, sub-par years from Johnson and Francoeur, etc.) I am glad to be discussing the possibility of making a postseason run (however a long shot it may be).

I did some checking at pitching probables and remaining schedules, and while the games aren't won until they're played, our chances seem to be okay with one Colorado series being huge. Look at these pitching probables, and remember that Colorado's Magic Number to clinch the Wild Card is SEVEN.

9/23:
ATL @ NYM (Hudson v. Pelfrey)-Atlanta win
SD @ COL (Stauffer v. Marquis)-Colorado win
No change in the standings-COL magic number to 6

9/24
ATL off
SD @ COL (Richard v. Hammel)-Colorado win
Braves 5.5 GB; COL magic number to 5

9/25
ATL @ WSH (Hudson v. Lannan)-ATL win
STL @ COL (Carpenter v. Cook)-COL loss
Braves 4.5 GB; COL magic number is 5

9/26
ATL @ WSH (Hanson v. TBD)-ATL win
STL @ COL (Wainwright v. Jimenez)-COL loss
Braves 3.5 GB; COL magic number is 5

9/27
ATL @ WSH (TBD-Lowe's turn in rotation vs. TBD)-ATL win
STL @ COL (Lohse v. De La Rosa)-COL win
Braves 3.5 GB; COL magic number is 4

At this point, predicting pitching is impossible, but what is worth noting is this. Colorado finishes the year with three at home vs. Milwaukee and 3 at Los Angeles. The Braves finish with three at home vs. Florida and 4 at home vs. Washington. Any combination of Braves losses and Colorado wins that equals four gives them the WC. However, if the Braves can win all of their remaining seven games by this point, Colorado would need to do no better than 3-4 in their last two series, while the Braves won all seven.

Therefore, even with our favorable schedule it will be extremely difficult for Atlanta to overtake the Rockies, who probably won't finish the year on a 6-6 streak (though they are 5-5 in their last ten, while the Braves are 8-2).

My point, though, is that it is still possible. Braves' fans aren't used to scoreboard watching for the postseason, but after a 3 year drought, I'm actually enjoying watching the scoreboard. And I do believe that if the season were 176 games instead of 162, the Braves would catch Colorado.

Let's get our chop on the last two weeks-it's not over yet!

8 comments:

sja said...

Chop ... Chop! ...

Matthew, Dad to Walter and Abigail said...

Agreed!

Gil in Mechanicsville said...

Never a dull moment for Brave's fans....

Matthew, Dad to Walter and Abigail said...

You're right, Gil. And the fact that we're playing meaningful basball in the season's last two weeks is something I've greatly missed!

Matthew, Dad to Walter and Abigail said...

Thanks for posting the pole, Bob, but the answer I would have chosen was...

Not beating losing teams until the season's final months. That sweep by Cincy really hurt us.

BOB said...

Keep Choppin' ... 2.5 back!!

sja said...

Even the JackAss could have drilled those 2 Derek Lowe pitches he lobbed right across the heart of the plate ... the 2 pitches that left the park ...

BOB said...

Congratulations to the Rockies!

Keep choppin' ... it's been a good second half ... much more to being a fan than making the playoffs!

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